A Systems Theory for Today

A living, forkable attempt to build a systems theory adequate to the present — by designed disagreement.

Topics — where each pressure-test lives

A wayfinding index only. The fourteen pressure-tests — thirteen across four layers, plus one cross-cutting fourteenth (register/care) — by their plain names, with links to where each is defined, debated, drawn, and measured. Nothing is claimed on this page that is not already on the pages it points to.

Throughout the record the tests carry short codes — M for the master condition, D1–D4 the drivers, Y1–Y4 the dynamics, S1–S4 the symptoms, and R the cross-cutting register/care test promoted from dissent at Session 4k.

Every topic below is: defined in Goals · debated in Session 2 · its arrows drawn in the causal hypothesis · its status measured on Self-audit & figures.

Care entered the list late, and by promotion rather than design. Through Session 2 it was carried only as a dissent — the repair-episode unit named maintenance-shaped repair (care systems, mutual aid) as a structural blind spot left uncut ("the invisible load-bearing wall" — Le Guin, preserved in dissent), and Session 2 kept the objection on the record as D-005. At Session 4k that dissent was promoted to R, the fourteenth pressure-test: a cross-cutting, reflexive register that audits the list and its apparatus rather than sitting inside a layer. R is drafted and untested — it names the blind spot, it does not close it — and because it turns on a foreign vantage this closed build does not admit, it stays conclusively untested here. Naming a test is not yet accounting for it.

The master condition M is contested at the root, beyond the base-or-summit question (Q-002): Theory D in waiting — Luhmann's differentiation rival — holds there may have been no single shared coherence to lose, and that the "vacuum" is how a functionally differentiated society feels to a centre-expecting observer. It is recorded, not built, and not ruled against A/B/C here; it is refuted if a genuinely shared, cross-system "why" can be shown to have existed and then measurably fractured.

Topic (plain name)CodeLayerThe founding question, where one existsHome theory
Coherence vacuum M Master “Why is what is happening today happening at all? — the loss of shared ideology, belief, and coherent understanding” A / C — Theory A Theory C · all three · base or summit open (Q-002)
Acceleration D1 Drivers A — Theory A · all three
Optimization D2 Drivers B — Theory B · all three
Wealth pump D3 Drivers A · Turchin — Theory A · all three
Machine intelligence D4 Drivers B / A — Theory A Theory B · all three
Epistemic breakdown Y1 Dynamics “Why is “post-truth” insufficient to describe the level of propaganda?” B + A — Theory A Theory B · all three
Coordination failure Y2 Dynamics “Why can we no longer coordinate and communicate?” A + C — Theory A Theory C · all three
Institutional decay Y3 Dynamics A · Ibn Khaldun — Theory A · all three
Ecological overshoot Y4 Dynamics “Why are we destroying the climate?” A + B — Theory A Theory B · all three
Fertility collapse S1 Symptoms “Why are people not giving birth?” A / B — Theory A Theory B · all three
Attention economy S2 Symptoms “Why has the dopamine rush become so central?” B — Theory B · all three
Populism S3 Symptoms “Why are populism and authoritarianism rising?” A + B · Turchin — Theory A Theory B · all three
Anomie / loneliness S4 Symptoms C · Han — Theory C · all three
Register / care fairness R Reflexive Cross-cutting — audits the list — promoted from D-005, drafted · no home theory