Evidence Relationships and Gaps

CS005 — North American acid-deposition control and uneven monitored surface-water chemistry recovery

Boundary Challenges any reading that treats slow substrate recovery after strong institutional control and pressure reduction as continuing institutional repair failure.

Boundary case: institutional control and pressure reduction succeeded faster than regionally uneven monitored surface-water chemistry recovery; biological recovery remains undefined and residual damage cannot automatically be coded as continuing institutional repair failure.

S148 — Review and Assessment of the Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement

Environment and Climate Change Canada / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2024)

Environmental repair assessment Documents commitments met and strong precursor reduction alongside incomplete and regionally heterogeneous recovery, challenging endpoint collapse.

Use for commitments met, pressure reductions, declining exceedance, and incomplete recovery together; retain agency self-evaluation limits.

S151 — Power Sector Programs Progress Report: Ecosystem Response

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2024)

Environmental outcome monitoring Documents uneven regional water-chemistry response after large pressure reduction; chemical response is not direct biological restoration.

Use for regionally heterogeneous ANC and chemistry response; do not infer biological restoration.

CS001 — South Korea fertility

Failure Illustrates one bounded reproductive-agency and care setting; it does not establish the cross-domain synthesis.

Illustrates reproductive-agency and care constraints in one setting; does not establish a general causal mechanism.

CS002 — New Hampshire AI robocall

Failure Illustrates a synthetic-media event and governance response; it does not establish the cross-domain synthesis.

Documents a synthetic-media event and governance response; illustrates provenance and response-timing questions without establishing incremental verification cost or behavioral effect.

CS003 — Climate misinformation and repair latency

Failure Illustrates a climate misinformation and delay problem; it does not establish Repair-Lag causality.

Illustrates a climate misinformation and delay problem; does not establish Repair-Lag causality or the independent effect of misinformation.

CS004 — Vienna–Montreal ozone regime

Successful repair Shows that a bounded adaptive regime can reverse a damaging pressure while substrate replenishment remains delayed; it does not establish cross-domain generality or defeat tractability, technology, market, trade, and domestic-regulation rivals.

Substantial adaptive successful repair at the institutional-control and pressure-reversal levels; full total-column ozone recovery remains conditional and incomplete.

S013 — Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System

Donella Meadows Project (1999)

Theory context Provides conceptual context for the bounded synthesis; it is not a direct test of C1.

Use as conceptual context for C1; no direct cross-domain test is claimed.

S016 — Social Acceleration: A New Theory of Modernity

Hartmut Rosa (2013)

Theory context Provides conceptual context for the bounded synthesis; it is not a direct test of C1.

Use as conceptual context for C1; no direct cross-domain test is claimed.

S026 — Governing the Commons / Nobel Lecture

Elinor Ostrom / Nobel Prize (2009)

Theory context Provides conceptual context for the bounded synthesis; it is not a direct test of C1.

Use as conceptual context for C1; no direct cross-domain test is claimed.

S027 — Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries

Rockström et al. / Nature (2023)

Theory context Provides conceptual context for the bounded synthesis; it is not a direct test of C1.

Use as conceptual context for C1; no direct cross-domain test is claimed.

S028 — Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement

Lawrence, Janzwood, Homer-Dixon / Global Sustainability (2024)

Theory context Provides conceptual context for the bounded synthesis; it is not a direct test of C1.

Use as conceptual context for C1; no direct cross-domain test is claimed.

S137 — Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 Executive Summary

WMO / UNEP (2022)

Environmental repair assessment Separates observed halogen decline, uneven ozone response, attribution, and conditional recovery projections; it contextualizes CS004 rather than proving the cross-domain synthesis.

Use for the separated halogen, ozone, attribution, uncertainty, and conditional-projection findings; recovery is incomplete.

CS002 — New Hampshire AI robocall

Failure Illustrates provenance and correction demands in one governance episode; it does not establish shared reality as infrastructure.

Documents a synthetic-media event and governance response; illustrates provenance and response-timing questions without establishing incremental verification cost or behavioral effect.

CS003 — Climate misinformation and repair latency

Failure Illustrates a contested coordination and delay setting; it does not establish the proposed enabling condition.

Illustrates a climate misinformation and delay problem; does not establish Repair-Lag causality or the independent effect of misinformation.

S054 — 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer

Edelman (2026)

Coordination context Provides context for shared evidentiary ground and coordination; no direct causal test is claimed.

Use as shared-ground and coordination context; it does not establish C2 or the RQ1 pathway.

S040 — Deepfakes and the Crisis of Knowing

UNESCO (2025)

Coordination context Provides context for trust and correction conditions; no direct causal test is claimed.

Use as trust and correction context; it is not evidence of a direct or synthetic-media-specific effect.

S006 — Digital News Report 2026 — Executive Summary

Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism (2026)

Coordination context Provides context for collective coordination; no direct causal test is claimed.

Use as coordination context; no direct causal test of C2 is claimed.

S053 — Fractured reality: how algorithms fuel polarisation and affect democracy

European Commission Joint Research Centre (2026)

Coordination context Provides context for contested authority and coordination; no direct causal test is claimed.

Use as contested-authority and coordination context; no direct causal test of C2 is claimed.

CS001 — South Korea fertility

Failure Illustrates care and agency constraints in one national setting; it does not establish a general care-capacity mechanism.

Illustrates reproductive-agency and care constraints in one setting; does not establish a general causal mechanism.

S002 — State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis

UNFPA (2025)

Demography care context Provides demographic and care context; it is not a direct causal test of C6.

Use as demographic and care context; do not present it as a direct test of C5 or C6.

S080 — Inclusive and sustainable well-being in Korea: gender wage gap

OECD (2024)

Demography care context Provides agency and care context; it is not a direct causal test of C6.

Use as reproductive-agency and care context; do not present it as a direct causal test.

CS002 — New Hampshire AI robocall

Failure Documents a synthetic-media event and response; it does not establish incremental verification cost or behavioral effect.

Documents a synthetic-media event and governance response; illustrates provenance and response-timing questions without establishing incremental verification cost or behavioral effect.

S081 — Voter Suppression AI Robocall Investigation Update

New Hampshire Department of Justice (2024)

Event legal record Provides event or legal context for the synthetic-media episode; no incremental burden is inferred.

Use as event or legal context for CS002; do not infer an incremental verification burden.

S083 — FCC Declaratory Ruling: AI-generated voices in robocalls

Federal Communications Commission (2024)

Event legal record Provides event or legal context for the synthetic-media episode; no incremental burden is inferred.

Use as event or legal context for CS002; do not infer an incremental verification burden.

S085 — FCC Fines Man Behind Election Interference Scheme $6 Million

Federal Communications Commission (2024)

Event legal record Provides event or legal context for the synthetic-media episode; no incremental burden is inferred.

Use as event or legal context for CS002; do not infer an incremental verification burden.

S066 — Synthetic media and its identification and detection

UK Information Commissioner’s Office (2025)

Method detection context Provides detection and verification-method context; it is not a matched comparison.

Use for detection and verification-method context; it is not a matched synthetic-versus-conventional comparison.

S040 — Deepfakes and the Crisis of Knowing

UNESCO (2025)

Coordination context Provides broader trust and correction context; it is not evidence of an incremental synthetic-media effect.

Use as trust and correction context; it is not evidence of a direct or synthetic-media-specific effect.

S082 — Steven Kramer Charged with Voter Suppression Over AI-Generated President Biden Robocalls

New Hampshire Department of Justice (2024)

Event legal record Provides a charge announcement for the incident timeline; it is not a finding of guilt or evidence of incremental verification burden.

Use as a charge announcement with an explicit no-finding-of-guilt caveat; do not infer intent, audience impact, or an incremental verification burden.

S084 — FCC Settles Case Against Provider that Transmitted Spoofed AI-Generated Robocalls

Federal Communications Commission (2024)

Event legal record Provides enforcement-response context for the incident timeline; it does not establish audience impact or incremental verification burden.

Use as enforcement-response context for CS002; do not infer audience impact or an incremental verification burden.

S086 — Discourses of climate delay

Lamb et al. / Global Sustainability (2020)

Climate delay research Provides a delay-taxonomy context only; it does not demonstrate symbolic displacement.

Supports use of a climate-delay taxonomy; it does not establish C7 or symbolic displacement under C8.

S003 — AR6 Synthesis Report

IPCC (2023)

Climate science Supports the underlying scientific-risk baseline; it does not by itself support the proposed repair-lag mechanism.

Supports the scientific-risk baseline; it does not by itself support the Repair-Lag mechanism.

S086 — Discourses of climate delay

Lamb et al. / Global Sustainability (2020)

Climate delay research Supports use of a climate-delay taxonomy while leaving the project-specific causal mechanism open.

Supports use of a climate-delay taxonomy; it does not establish C7 or symbolic displacement under C8.

CS003 — Climate misinformation and repair latency

Failure Illustrates a climate misinformation and delay problem; it does not establish Repair-Lag causality or an independent misinformation effect.

Illustrates a climate misinformation and delay problem; does not establish Repair-Lag causality or the independent effect of misinformation.

CS004 — Vienna–Montreal ozone regime

Successful repair Provides an adjacent successful atmospheric-governance comparison; ozone-depleting-substance control is not direct evidence for economy-wide carbon-dioxide decarbonization or the independent effect of coordination variables.

Substantial adaptive successful repair at the institutional-control and pressure-reversal levels; full total-column ozone recovery remains conditional and incomplete.

S087 — Big Oil's Evolving Efforts to Avoid Accountability for Climate Change

U.S. Senate Budget Committee / House Oversight Democratic Staff (2024)

Climate political economy context Provides climate political-economy or sector context and must be tested as a rival explanation.

Use as climate political-economy or sector context and retain it as a rival-explanation input.

S111 — Global Energy Review 2026

International Energy Agency (2026)

Climate political economy context Provides climate political-economy or sector context and must be tested as a rival explanation.

Use as climate political-economy or sector context and retain it as a rival-explanation input.

S112 — Emissions Gap Report 2025

United Nations Environment Programme (2025)

Climate political economy context Provides climate political-economy or sector context and must be tested as a rival explanation.

Canonical UNEP emissions-gap record; use as climate policy-gap and rival-explanation context.

S113 — Transport - Energy System

International Energy Agency (2026)

Climate political economy context Provides climate political-economy or sector context and must be tested as a rival explanation.

Use as climate political-economy or sector context and retain it as a rival-explanation input.

S114 — Buildings - Energy System

International Energy Agency (2026)

Climate political economy context Provides climate political-economy or sector context and must be tested as a rival explanation.

Use as climate political-economy or sector context and retain it as a rival-explanation input.

S137 — Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 Executive Summary

WMO / UNEP (2022)

Environmental repair assessment Provides the scientific outcome chain for an adjacent atmospheric-governance comparison; it does not supply a carbon-dioxide-sector threshold or boundary case.

Use for the separated halogen, ozone, attribution, uncertainty, and conditional-projection findings; recovery is incomplete.

CS001 — South Korea fertility

Failure Illustrates reproductive-agency and care constraints in one setting; it does not establish a general intention-achievement mechanism.

Illustrates reproductive-agency and care constraints in one setting; does not establish a general causal mechanism.

S002 — State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis

UNFPA (2025)

Demography care context Provides demographic context; it is not a direct test of the specified intention-achievement pathway.

Use as demographic and care context; do not present it as a direct test of C5 or C6.

S080 — Inclusive and sustainable well-being in Korea: gender wage gap

OECD (2024)

Demography care context Provides agency and care context; it is not a direct test of the specified intention-achievement pathway.

Use as reproductive-agency and care context; do not present it as a direct causal test.

S069 — Fertility trends across the OECD: underlying drivers and role for policy

OECD (2024)

Fertility context Provides fertility or preference context; it is not a direct causal test of C5.

Canonical OECD fertility-trends record; use as context rather than a direct test of C5.

S088 — OECD Family Database SF2.1 Fertility Rates

OECD (2026)

Fertility context Provides fertility or preference context; it is not a direct causal test of C5.

Use as fertility or preference context; it is not a direct test of the C5 intention-achievement pathway.

S102 — Evaluating pronatalist policies with TFR brings misleading conclusions: examples from Hungary

Lutz, Sobotka, and Zeman / N-IUSSP (2024)

Fertility context Provides fertility or preference context; it is not a direct causal test of C5.

Use as fertility or preference context; it is not a direct test of the C5 intention-achievement pathway.

S077 — Birth Statistics in 2024

Statistics Korea (2025)

Fertility context Provides an official 2024 Korea birth and fertility-rate baseline; it does not establish the C5 intention-achievement pathway.

Use as an official 2024 Korea birth and fertility-rate baseline; do not infer a causal pathway.

S078 — Korea's Unborn Future: Understanding Low-Fertility Trends

OECD (2025)

Demography care context Provides Korea work care housing and gender context; it does not establish a general Theory G mechanism.

Canonical OECD Korea fertility record; currently contextual rather than a direct v1.7.2 evidence edge.

S037 — How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020

Pew Research Center (2025)

Belief context Provides belief or mediation context; it is not evidence of prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

Use as belief and mediation context; do not infer prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

S038 — Spirituality Among Americans

Pew Research Center (2023)

Belief context Provides belief or mediation context; it is not evidence of prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

Use as belief and mediation context; do not infer prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

S048 — Many Religious Nones Around the World Hold Spiritual Beliefs

Pew Research Center (2025)

Belief context Provides belief or mediation context; it is not evidence of prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

Use as belief and mediation context; do not infer prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

S059 — The emergence of conspirituality

Ward and Voas / Journal of Contemporary Religion (2011)

Belief context Provides belief or mediation context; it is not evidence of prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

Use as belief and mediation context; do not infer prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

S060 — Conspirituality Reconsidered: How Surprising and How New is the Confluence of Spirituality and Conspiracy Theory

Asprem and Dyrendal / Journal of Contemporary Religion (2015)

Belief context Provides belief or mediation context; it is not evidence of prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

Use as belief and mediation context; do not infer prevalence or a causal recombination pathway.

S030 — Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy

Freedom House (2026)

Democracy context Provides democracy and authoritarianism context; it does not establish the proposed temporal or mediated pathway.

Use as democracy and authoritarianism context for RQ1; no temporal or mediated pathway is established.

S054 — 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer

Edelman (2026)

Coordination context Provides coordination context; it does not establish the proposed causal pathway.

Use as shared-ground and coordination context; it does not establish C2 or the RQ1 pathway.