Q4 2025 global AISC
Research report · 22 Jul 2026
The all-in cost of an ounce of gold—without false precision.
A concise HTML report connecting the latest production-cost run-rate, broader cost scenarios, 55 years of price history, the above-ground owner map and 3 AI-simulated analytical lenses.
Growth + 15% tax/finance scenario
01 · Direct answer
Use $1,706/oz as the latest sustaining-cost run-rate.
Q4 2025 global AISC was $1,706/oz. FY 2025 AISC was $1,521/oz: a production-weighted average across paid ounces for the whole year. Q4 was $185/oz, or 12.2%, higher. Because World Gold Council / Metals Focus supplies Q4 and S&P Global Market Intelligence supplies FY, the difference combines timing with source-universe differences.
AISC$1,706
Observed Q4 aggregate
AISC + growth$1,989
Run-rate scenario
Broader cost$2,287
+15% scenario
The growth scenario adds the $283/oz gap between the large-producer FY proxy ($1,804) and FY global AISC ($1,521) to the Q4 AISC. The broader figure then adds 15% for tax and finance. Neither is an observed worldwide accounting total.
02 · Price and margin
2025 average and year-end price answer different questions.
The World Bank 2025 point—$3,442/oz—is an annual average, not the start of the year. Reuters reported spot at $4,326.55/oz on 31 Dec 2025. Current spot in this research snapshot is $4,068.29/oz on 21 Jul 2026.
Selectable price-gap lens
How wide is the margin?
Cost basis
Price basis
Gold price$4,068
Q4 2025 global AISC$1,706
Dollar gap$2,362
Gap ÷ price58.1%
Gap ÷ cost138.5%
The $283/oz growth-capex allowance is the difference between the $1,804 FY peer proxy and $1,521 FY global AISC, applied to Q4 as a scenario. The 15% overlay is a transparent tax-and-finance assumption, not an observed global statistic. Cross-period gaps are not realised producer margins.
03 · Who holds gold?
Most of the stock is visible by form, not by legal owner.
WGC estimates 219,891 tonnes above ground atend-2025: 44% jewellery, 23% bars/coins/ETFs, 18% central banks and15% other. This is not a global beneficial-owner register. Official reserves are the clearest named-owner slice; private ownership by household, institution and geography remains incomplete.
Historical period explorer
What is actually known at each anchor?
Current estimate219,891t
Current WGC estimate
44% jewellery, 23% bars/coins including ETFs, 18% central banks and 15% other. These are form/use buckets—not a full owner registry.
Period sourceForm/use ≠ beneficial owner. Historical scopes also change: the 1895 split covers monetary gold only; modern estimates cover all above-ground gold. Percentages are not treated as one continuous series.
04 · AI-simulated perspectives
AI simulations — not the named investors.
AI-GENERATED SIMULATION - NOT THE PERSONWarren Buffett-styleThe spread is not the compounding.
The $1,781–$2,362/oz modelled spread signals exceptional mine economics, not proof that bullion is cheap or miners are compounding. Test how much survives tax, overruns, reserve replacement, acquisitions and dilution.
AI-GENERATED SIMULATION - NOT THE PERSONRay Dalio-styleTreat gold as monetary insurance.
Spot is 2.38× latest-quarter AISC and 1.78× the broader run-rate model. That weakens a cost-based margin-of-safety case, but not the monetary-insurance case. Ownership flows, real yields and reserve diversification remain decisive.
AI-GENERATED SIMULATION - NOT THE PERSONRick Rule-styleBullish metal, selective miners.
All three cost lenses show substantial operating room. It is bullish for selected producers only if the gap reaches shareholders; growth projects, tax, finance, acquisitions and dilution can consume it.
05 · Decision limits
What this report cannot turn into one clean number.
- AISC excludes income tax, interest and much growth investment.
- Tax and finance vary by price, jurisdiction and capital structure.
- Current spot minus lagged cost is a scenario, not realised margin.
- Above-ground categories do not identify every beneficial owner.
- Historical ownership scopes change and cannot form one seamless series.
06 · About
The project is by Hulki Okan Tabak — with Codex.
His collected works — books, photographs, essays, games, artworks and his other experiments — live at the collected-works site.
07 · Important notice
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
This material is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or a solicitation. Figures and scenarios may be incomplete, delayed, modelled or wrong. Obtain independent professional advice and perform your own research before making financial decisions.
THE PEOPLE ARE REAL; THESE ARE NOT THEIR STATEMENTS. These are not real participants, interviews or statements of current views. Each position is an AI-generated simulation of a publicly associated investment framework, included only to provide contrasting perspective. Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio and Rick Rule did not participate in, review, approve or endorse this analysis, and it may not reflect their actual or current views.