Nominal USD, based on World Bank annual endpoints. This is not a real return and ignores storage.
1971–2026
The price history is long. The comparable cost history is not.
Gold has a 55-year annual market-price series. Standardised global AISC reporting begins only in the modern era, so the chart leaves the earlier cost field blank instead of inventing one.
Current gap vs Q4 AISC$2,362/oz58.1% of spot
Nominal USD per troy ounce
Gold price vs reported global AISC
Gold annual averageGlobal AISC observationsQuarterly observation31 Dec 2025 spot21 Jul 2026 spot snapshot
Price: World Bank annual averages, 1971–2025. Its 2025 point is $3,442/oz—the average of the year, not the start or finish. Reuters reported $4,326.55/oz spot on 31 Dec 2025. S&P Global Market Intelligence's matched annual comparison uses $3,436/oz because its methodology differs. The 2026point is a dated Reuters via MarketScreener snapshot. AISC is sparse; quarterly and annual observations are deliberately distinguished.
Dollar difference · nominal USD per troy ounce
Historical AISC gaps and the latest price–cost snapshot
Comparable history uses the World Bank annual-average gold price minus global AISC for the same fiscal year. Current† uses the latest dated gold price and the latest available selected cost basis. The selector changes Current only; no historical AIC or full-cost series is invented.
Current cost basis
Latest observed aggregate. World Gold Council / Metals Focus global AISC; latest published period available at the research date.
Reported FY AISC anchorDerived 2012 cost anchorCurrent mixed-date basisModelled current basis
Selected observationCurrent† · $2,362.29/ozLatest observed aggregate · mixed-date snapshot
- Latest available gold
- $4,068.29/oz
- AISC
- $1,706.00/oz
- Equation
- $4,068.29 − $1,706.00
Price: 21 Jul 2026 · 18:00 GMT. Cost: Q4 2025. World Gold Council / Metals Focus global AISC; latest published period available at the research date. This is a cross-period indicator, not realised margin.
View exact gap data
| Period | Gold price | Price vintage | Cost basis | Cost | Cost vintage | Dollar gap | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2012* | $1,670/oz | FY 2012 annual average | AISC | $1,116/oz | FY 2012 | $554/oz | Derived cost anchor |
| FY 2016 | $1,249/oz | FY 2016 annual average | AISC | $879/oz | FY 2016 | $370/oz | Reported FY anchor |
| FY 2021 | $1,800/oz | FY 2021 annual average | AISC | $1,068/oz | FY 2021 | $732/oz | Reported FY anchor |
| FY 2022 | $1,801/oz | FY 2022 annual average | AISC | $1,276/oz | FY 2022 | $525/oz | Reported FY anchor |
| FY 2025 | $3,442/oz | FY 2025 annual average | AISC | $1,521/oz | FY 2025 | $1,921/oz | Reported FY anchor |
| Current† · AISC | $4,068.29/oz | 21 Jul 2026 · 18:00 GMT | AISC | $1,706.00/oz | Q4 2025 | $2,362.29/oz | Latest observed aggregate |
| Current† · All-in cost (AIC) proxy | $4,068.29/oz | 21 Jul 2026 · 18:00 GMT | All-in cost (AIC) proxy | $1,989.00/oz | Q4 2025 run-rate model | $2,079.29/oz | Modelled AIC proxy |
| Current† · Full-cost scenario | $4,068.29/oz | 21 Jul 2026 · 18:00 GMT | Full-cost scenario | $2,287.35/oz | Q4 2025 run-rate scenario | $1,780.94/oz | Modelled full-cost scenario |
Sparse historical observations only; no missing years are interpolated. Quarterly AISC points are excluded from comparable FY history. Current† pairs the Reuters via MarketScreener spot snapshot on 21 Jul 2026 with Q4 2025, the latest published global AISC period available at the research date. It is therefore cross-period and indicative. AIC and full cost are current-only modelled scenarios; they are not backcast. The 2025 series bar uses the World Bank $3,442/oz annual average; S&P Global Market Intelligence's provider-matched $3,436/oz price gives a separate $1,915/oz cross-check. None of these gaps is realised producer margin, free cash flow, investment return or investment advice.
Selectable price-gap lens
How wide is the margin?
Cost basis
Price basis
Gold price$4,068
Q4 2025 global AISC$1,706
Dollar gap$2,362
Gap ÷ price58.1%
Gap ÷ cost138.5%
The $283/oz growth-capex allowance is the difference between the $1,804 FY peer proxy and $1,521 FY global AISC, applied to Q4 as a scenario. The 15% overlay is a transparent tax-and-finance assumption, not an observed global statistic. Cross-period gaps are not realised producer margins.
World Bank average across the year—not the opening or close.
Reuters spot snapshot. A period-end point can sit far above the annual average without either value being wrong.
21 Jul 2026 spot minus Q4 2025 AISC. Indicative only—not a realised2026 producer margin.
What the gap does—and does not—say
Investor reading
Wide margins attract capital slowly. Gold projects face long permitting, construction and ramp-up cycles. Output therefore does not respond to price like a factory line.
AISC can rise with gold. Sliding-scale royalties, lower-grade ore becoming economic and more sustaining work can lift the reported cost when price rises.
The marginal cost is not a price floor. Above-ground stock dwarfs annual mine output, so monetary demand, rates, currencies and holder flows can dominate price.