Research question, not explanatory claim
RQ1 — When if ever does repair failure increase authoritarian appeal
Under what specified conditions does a measurable repair failure precede and increase demand for simplified enemies strongman promises or narrowed pluralism through a defined mediator?
- Historical id
- C9
- Status
- causal_pathway_not_yet_evidenced
- Scope
- One jurisdiction pair period repair domain mediator and political outcome; not populism or protest in general.
- Strongest rival
- Elite strategy coercion party supply nationalism institutional inheritance class conflict or geopolitics predicts the outcome more directly.
- Unit of analysis
- Not yet defined — unresolved evidence gap
- Observation period
- Not yet defined — unresolved evidence gap
- Mediator
- Not yet defined — unresolved evidence gap
- Outcome
- Not yet defined — unresolved evidence gap
- Party supply measure
- Not yet defined — unresolved evidence gap
- Reverse causality test
- Temporal pretrends lagged measures common shocks and party-supply variables must test whether authoritarian actors first damaged repair capacity.
- Decision threshold
- Not yet defined — unresolved evidence gap
- What would lower confidence
- Temporal order or mediation fails or another rival predicts the outcome better.
- Revision consequence
- Keep the former claim retired unless a distinct pathway is demonstrated.
- Evidence gap
- No dedicated comparative case; unit period mediator outcome and threshold remain not_yet_defined.
- Misuse warning
- Do not flatten political disagreement label all populism authoritarian or delegitimize protest against failed institutions.
- Next test
- Specify the first jurisdiction pair period repair measure mediator outcome party-supply measure and reverse-causality design.
- Last reviewed
- 2026-07-10
- Record version
- 1.7.2
Typed evidence and gaps
Context
S030 — Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy
Democracy context Provides democracy and authoritarianism context; it does not establish the proposed temporal or mediated pathway.
Use as democracy and authoritarianism context for RQ1; no temporal or mediated pathway is established.
S054 — 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer
Coordination context Provides coordination context; it does not establish the proposed causal pathway.
Use as shared-ground and coordination context; it does not establish C2 or the RQ1 pathway.
Evidence gaps
Evidence gaps
No dedicated comparative case has specified the jurisdiction pair period repair measure mediator outcome party supply and reverse-causality design.