Lens 1
Price action
The browser model tracks USD/TRY directly and compares TRY to a simple peer basket including ZAR, BRL, HUF, and PLN. This keeps the read from confusing broad EM moves with TRY-specific weakness.
Methodology
How the browser score is built
FX TRY Risk Lab is meant to be readable first and technical second. This page explains what the public score means, what goes into it, and where the main limits are.
What The Score Means
It is a probability-style read, not a trading command
The app publishes a score for each horizon that is meant to represent the chance that TRY weakens beyond the threshold for that horizon. The score is designed for disciplined public monitoring, not for automatic trading.
| Horizon | Threshold |
|---|---|
| 1w | 2% |
| 1m | 5% |
| 3m | 10% |
| 6m | 15% |
| 1y | 25% |
Lens 2
Volatility
Public Cboe volatility proxies such as VIX, VXEEM, VVIX, OVX, and GVZ are used to catch risk-off episodes, EM stress, and commodity-volatility spikes that can intensify shorter-horizon TRY pressure.
Lens 3
Global macro
The model looks at public US rates and broad dollar proxies when those feeds are available. If they are incomplete, the global lens is neutralized and the caveat load is raised instead of pretending confidence that is not there.
Lens 4
Turkey policy and reserves
The domestic layer uses public CBRT policy-rate and reserve information to estimate whether the local cushion is supportive, mixed, or thin.
Lens 5
Headline flow
The app also counts public news and chatter intensity. This is deliberately a lighter signal than market and macro inputs, but it helps the browser brief reflect whether the narrative environment is quiet or busy.
Horizon Weighting
How the blend changes across time
Shorter horizons lean more on spot behavior and volatility. Longer horizons lean more on macro and domestic policy or reserve conditions.
| Horizon | Market | Vol | Global macro | Turkey domestic | Headlines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 40% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 5% |
| 1m | 30% | 25% | 20% | 20% | 5% |
| 3m | 20% | 15% | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| 6m | 15% | 10% | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| 1y | 10% | 5% | 25% | 40% | 20% |
Redundancy And Reliability
What happens when public feeds wobble
This browser edition now keeps a last-good local source cache for important public feeds. If a live request times out or gets blocked, the build can fall back to the most recent successful data rather than dropping that lens entirely.
That does not remove uncertainty. Instead, the app keeps publishing warnings and caveats so the user can see when the read is leaning on cached public data.
Limits
What this project is not
- It is not a trading instruction engine.
- It is not a live institutional market-data terminal.
- It does not guarantee predictive accuracy.
- It is best used as a transparent public-monitoring tool.