{
  "generated_at": "2026-04-16T12:02:48Z",
  "primary_horizon": "1m",
  "thresholds": {
    "1w": 2,
    "1m": 5,
    "3m": 10,
    "6m": 15,
    "1y": 25
  },
  "curve": {
    "1w": 44.4,
    "1m": 38.9,
    "3m": 32.7,
    "6m": 28.4,
    "1y": 24.1
  },
  "primary_score": 38.9,
  "headline": "TRY is lagging peers, but policy and reserves still cushion the read while global feeds remain incomplete.",
  "briefing": {
    "stance": "Balanced but fragile",
    "probability": 38.9,
    "primary_horizon": "1m",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "caveat_severity": "high",
    "caveat_message": "Global rates and dollar feeds were incomplete, so the external macro read is less certain than the market and domestic read.",
    "house_call": "TRY is lagging peers, but policy and reserves still cushion the read while global feeds remain incomplete."
  },
  "summary": {
    "deck": "TRY is lagging peers, but policy and reserves still cushion the read while global feeds remain incomplete.",
    "primary_message": "TRY is lagging peers, but policy and reserves still cushion the read while global feeds remain incomplete.",
    "market_message": "USD/TRY is +1.19% over 20 sessions, with TRY vs peers at +6.03%.",
    "macro_message": "Global-rates feeds were incomplete in this snapshot, so the model used a neutral global backdrop while still tracking CBRT policy and reserve data.",
    "news_message": "2 Google News items and 0 social-chatter items landed in the last 14 days."
  },
  "why_read": [
    {
      "label": "Pressure",
      "title": "Spot pressure is still live",
      "detail": "TRY is +6.03% weaker than the peer basket over 20 sessions, while USD/TRY is +1.19% over the same window."
    },
    {
      "label": "Support",
      "title": "Domestic cushion is still there",
      "detail": "CBRT policy rate is 37.00%, and official reserves are +5.74% over the latest reserve window."
    },
    {
      "label": "Unclear",
      "title": "External macro is still cloudy",
      "detail": "Global rates and dollar feeds were incomplete, so the external macro read is less certain than the market and domestic read."
    }
  ],
  "trigger_cards": [
    {
      "title": "TRY vs peers",
      "detail": "If TRY keeps lagging the peer basket beyond the current +6.03% gap, the read should move more bearish.",
      "now": "Now +6.03% over 20 sessions"
    },
    {
      "title": "Reserve trend",
      "detail": "If reserve momentum rolls over from the current supportive trend, the domestic cushion gets thinner.",
      "now": "Now +5.74% over 4 weeks"
    },
    {
      "title": "Global macro clarity",
      "detail": "If the missing global-rates and dollar feeds come back showing stronger USD pressure, the current neutral external read should move higher.",
      "now": "Now external macro read is neutralized by missing feeds"
    }
  ],
  "charts": {
    "market_trend": {
      "title": "USD/TRY vs peer basket",
      "subtitle": "Last 20 sessions, normalized to 0% at the start of the window.",
      "unit": "Percent change from start",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "USD/TRY",
          "points": [
            {
              "date": "2026-03-17",
              "value": 0.0
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-18",
              "value": 0.04
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-19",
              "value": 0.26
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "value": 0.23
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-23",
              "value": 0.26
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-24",
              "value": 0.32
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-25",
              "value": 0.34
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-26",
              "value": 0.37
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "value": 0.57
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-30",
              "value": 0.57
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-31",
              "value": 0.62
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-01",
              "value": 0.59
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-02",
              "value": 0.65
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-07",
              "value": 0.91
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-08",
              "value": 0.63
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-09",
              "value": 0.87
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-10",
              "value": 1.05
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-13",
              "value": 1.16
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-14",
              "value": 1.18
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-15",
              "value": 1.14
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "Peer basket",
          "points": [
            {
              "date": "2026-03-17",
              "value": 0.0
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-18",
              "value": 0.91
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-19",
              "value": 1.77
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "value": 0.84
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-23",
              "value": 0.23
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-24",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-25",
              "value": 0.36
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-26",
              "value": 0.79
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "value": 1.34
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-30",
              "value": 1.39
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-03-31",
              "value": 0.79
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-01",
              "value": -0.66
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-02",
              "value": 0.3
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-07",
              "value": -0.35
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-08",
              "value": -2.72
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-09",
              "value": -2.26
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-10",
              "value": -2.65
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-13",
              "value": -3.02
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-14",
              "value": -4.3
            },
            {
              "date": "2026-04-15",
              "value": -4.01
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "score_history": {
      "title": "Primary score history",
      "subtitle": "Recent published primary-horizon reads.",
      "unit": "Probability score",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "Primary score",
          "points": [
            {
              "date": "2026-04-16",
              "value": 38.9,
              "stance": "Balanced but fragile"
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "regime_label": "Broad EM stress with TRY vulnerability",
    "usd_try": {
      "latest": 44.711,
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "change_5d": 0.515,
      "change_20d": 1.19
    },
    "peer_avg_20d": -4.835,
    "try_gap_20d": 6.026,
    "peers": [
      {
        "label": "USD/ZAR",
        "change_20d": -2.104,
        "latest": 16.4149
      },
      {
        "label": "USD/BRL",
        "change_20d": -5.163,
        "latest": 4.9981
      },
      {
        "label": "USD/HUF",
        "change_20d": -8.893,
        "latest": 309.7453
      },
      {
        "label": "USD/PLN",
        "change_20d": -3.18,
        "latest": 3.6004
      }
    ],
    "volatility": {
      "VIX": 18.17,
      "VXEEM": 27.4,
      "VVIX": 97.65,
      "OVX": 72.23,
      "GVZ": 29.97
    },
    "scores": {
      "market_pressure": 48.4,
      "volatility_pressure": 48.7
    }
  },
  "macro": {
    "regime_label": "Domestic policy and reserves are supportive",
    "global": {
      "fed_funds": null,
      "us_2y": null,
      "us_10y": null,
      "broad_dollar_change_20d": null
    },
    "turkey": {
      "policy_rate": 37.0,
      "official_reserve_assets": 170915.0,
      "fx_reserves": 56331.0,
      "official_reserve_assets_change_4w": 5.735,
      "fx_reserves_change_4w": 11.043
    },
    "scores": {
      "global_pressure": 50.0,
      "domestic_pressure": 10.8
    }
  },
  "news": {
    "headline_count_14d": 2,
    "chatter_count_14d": 0,
    "score": 0.0,
    "recent_headlines": [
      {
        "title": "Inflation and Macroeconomic Outlook: CBRT\u2019s Vision for 2026 - PA Turkey",
        "link": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxNWElPaVp6YmM0N1dTV0RiYjIyUXVBQU85TDdNejJXWXhaTzFoaU9pZW5PRXhBdVprdEJfcnowTmNyQWhNTXkyczlqMU5xMWN5YkdES1dxWVo2ZVhFbGFyaDQ2UTBuMnNldzU0aHh2X1h5eTAwRllyQ3ZGYXlXeldIMlNFM3UwdHBNdUFXcW9RMWN5eEMwYVdJd3d0THdwRGsw?oc=5",
        "published_at": "2026-04-14"
      },
      {
        "title": "Benign food prices prompt a positive surprise in Turkish inflation - ING THINK economic and financial analysis | ING THINK",
        "link": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxPR2EtYVMzeUloR3FJQVZ5YTB6bzlsMks4UmN4V2tCXy1neUFSdWRZeGpudHVnNmZpb3IzZ1UzVDk4dF9tVW12ZjRrX1h5cGtEOU9ZVFpFOTlPN20zZE96emxBSkFTVzk2NzB1MFZoZHU5VktKZUdQTkpDUkVGcVBjVjhCaUxOQjEwQ2JEdmlWQUxkN1hreFlIaFNadw?oc=5",
        "published_at": "2026-04-03"
      }
    ]
  },
  "reasons": [
    {
      "title": "Global macro",
      "detail": "Global-rates feeds were incomplete, so this snapshot kept the global backdrop neutral.",
      "score": 50.0
    },
    {
      "title": "Volatility",
      "detail": "VIX is 18.17, VXEEM is 27.40.",
      "score": 48.7
    },
    {
      "title": "Price action",
      "detail": "USD/TRY 20-session move is +1.19%.",
      "score": 48.4
    },
    {
      "title": "Turkey policy and reserves",
      "detail": "Policy rate is 37.00%, official reserves are +5.74% over the latest reserve window.",
      "score": 10.8
    }
  ],
  "watchlist": [
    "Watch whether USD/TRY keeps outrunning the peer basket; current 20-session gap is +6.03%.",
    "Watch reserve trend updates from CBRT; official reserve assets are +5.74% over the latest reserve window.",
    "Watch global volatility proxies; VIX/VXEEM are 18.17/27.40.",
    "Watch headline intensity; the current 14-day count is 2 news items."
  ],
  "warnings": [
    "FRED FEDFUNDS: Fetch failed for https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=FEDFUNDS: The read operation timed out",
    "FRED DGS10: Fetch failed for https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10: The read operation timed out",
    "FRED DGS2: Fetch failed for https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS2: The read operation timed out",
    "FRED DTWEXBGS: Fetch failed for https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DTWEXBGS: The read operation timed out"
  ],
  "history_entry": {
    "as_of": "2026-04-16T12:02:48Z",
    "primary_horizon": "1m",
    "primary_score": 38.9,
    "curve": {
      "1w": 44.4,
      "1m": 38.9,
      "3m": 32.7,
      "6m": 28.4,
      "1y": 24.1
    },
    "market_regime": "Broad EM stress with TRY vulnerability",
    "macro_regime": "Domestic policy and reserves are supportive",
    "headline": "TRY is lagging peers, but policy and reserves still cushion the read while global feeds remain incomplete.",
    "stance": "Balanced but fragile",
    "confidence": "medium"
  }
}